ProphetDesk
A retail prediction-market app that runs continuous AI forecasts across Kalshi and Polymarket contracts, sizes trades using the published proper-betting math, and publishes an auditable live-ROI dashboard so users can see which models actually convert accuracy into profit.
Retail prediction-market traders on Kalshi and Polymarket who want an AI-managed edge
- Daily prophet runs: ensemble forecasts generated on every liquid contract across Kalshi and Polymarket
- Proper-bet sizing derived from the model's probability vs. the live order-book price, gated by a liquidity check
- 'Fill or skip' alert that only pings the user when the proper-bet threshold crosses, to avoid decision fatigue
- Live ROI dashboard mirroring the paper's Kalshi backtest format — Sharpe, ROI, drawdown — updated against real filled orders
The paper proves a clean equivalence between forecast accuracy and order-book profit and reports a +80.33% ROI live on Kalshi — yet no consumer platform has packaged 'proper-bet as a service' for retail traders, even as Kalshi and Polymarket volume records fall weekly.
Prediction markets are booming in 2026 with Kalshi and Polymarket leading US liquidity; multiple articles confirm widespread retail interest and coverage of AI/automated strategies across both venues.AI Agents in Prediction Markets: The 2026 Trading Playbook ↗Best Prediction Market Apps 2026: Polymarket, Kalshi & More ↗
Crowded field of direct competitors already serving exactly this niche — Polifly (AI analyzer for Polymarket+Kalshi with daily picks and whale tracking), PredictEngine (Polymarket bot builder), PolyMarketBot Decision Engine, Alphascope, and TradeAlgo — leaving little differentiated room for a new entrant.Polifly — The #1 AI Tool To Beat Prediction Markets ↗PredictEngine - #1 Polymarket Trading Bot | Automated Prediction Markets ↗PolyMarketBot vs Kalshi vs Polymarket: AI Market Intelligence Guide ↗
Competitors already monetize at accessible price points (Polifly starts at $1 with paid tiers) and reviewers treat this as a paid SaaS category, confirming willingness to pay for AI prediction-market tooling among retail traders.Pricing - Polifly AI for Polymarket & Kalshi ↗Polifly Review: AI Analyzer for Polymarket and Kalshi ↗
Prediction-market volume is structurally growing and the proper-scoring-rule/expectation-variance equivalence is rigorous, durable science — but the cited arXiv ID resolves to an unrelated mathematical-physics paper (Hank Chen, 2506.05785), weakening the specific source-trend claim and adding regulatory risk for a retail product.arXiv:2506.05785 — Combinatorial quantization of 4d 2-Chern-Simons theory II ↗
Building requires maintaining both Kalshi's regulated REST/WS API and Polymarket's Polygon CLOB integration, implementing expectation-variance sizing, and hosting a public ROI dashboard — well-trodden but multi-system engineering work, not trivial.Prediction Market API Trading: How to Build Automated Strategies on Kalshi and Polymarket ↗