Super-Two Salary Forecaster
A free companion that takes any arbitration-eligible player and projects their next four arbitration salaries using the Josh Hader / Super-Two comp set, so fans can argue about contract value with real numbers instead of vibes.
Baseball fans and fantasy dynasty leaguers trying to value arbitration-year players
- Enter a player name + service time and get a 4-year arbitration salary projection with comparable cases shown side-by-side
- Adjust for role (closer vs starter), Saves vs WAR, and the team's stated payroll direction
- Export a one-card graphic suitable for tweeting when a comparable deal breaks
The article explicitly walks through Hader's arbitration arc as the Miller comp; fans arguing about whether the Padres can afford to keep Miller need exactly this kind of apples-to-apples projection tool.
Real but narrow: MLBTR has published Matt Swartz arbitration projections for 15 years, Spotrac/VCP/lukegwagner all maintain similar tools, and the Mason Miller $4M Super-Two arbitration story is generating current Padres-focused coverage — confirming a small but engaged audience of serious fans and dynasty leaguers.Arbitration Projection Model Rumors - MLB Trade Rumors ↗
Crowded free market: lukegwagner.com already ships a free Streamlit 4-year arbitration analyzer (Arb1/2/3/FA with surplus value), Spotrac ships per-player projections, MLBTR's Matt Swartz is industry-standard, and a new ML model exists on GitHub — the exact Hader-style 4-year projection is already a solved, free problem.MLB Arbitration Analyzer - lukegwagner.com ↗2026 MLB Arbitration: Super Two Players - Spotrac News ↗Predicting MLB Salary Arbitration Awards with Machine Learning ↗
Weak: MLBTR monetizes via general subscription, but the niche arbitration-projection slice is freely given away by MLBTR, Spotrac, VCP Bullpen, and lukegwagner — fans expect this for free and dynasty tools (DynastyProcess, HarryKnowsBall, FantasyTradeLab) lean on ads or freemium, not paywalls.Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2026 - VCP Bullpen ↗DynastyProcess Trade Calculator ↗
Decent: MLB's arbitration/Super-Two rules are locked in the CBA through at least 2026 and the Swartz-style framework has proven durable across 15+ years, so the underlying need is perennial — though player-specific comps (Hader) will rotate.Arbitration Projection Model Rumors - MLB Trade Rumors ↗
Trivial: lukegwagner built the exact 4-year Super-Two projection tool solo with Python + Streamlit on top of free FanGraphs/ZiPS/Spotrac data, proving one developer can ship it in days with no licensing or distribution barriers.MLB Arbitration Analyzer - lukegwagner.com ↗