MarketThesis Notebook
An AI research journal for prediction-market traders that tracks every position you take, captures your reasoning at entry, and later grades you on whether the thesis actually played out.
Active retail traders who want to learn from their prediction-market bets and stop repeating bad calls
- Auto-logged entry thesis written in your own words or generated from your chat with the AI
- Post-resolution grading screen that scores each thesis on accuracy and quality of reasoning
- Pattern reports showing your recurring biases (overconfidence on longshots, panic-selling on favorites, etc.)
- Weekly review prompts that surface the three trades you most need to study
The rise of automated sniper bots like PM-Sniper means more people are trading prediction markets than ever, but most still have no disciplined process for learning from wins and losses.
Prediction markets are clearly active — SSRN paper cites $67B Polymarket trade volume and rising retail interest (Kalshi/Polymarket comparisons trending), and several prediction-market-specific trackers exist (Predictboox, Kalopoly, Managebankroll), confirming a real user base seeking journaling tools, though still a narrow niche.Who Wins and Who Loses In Prediction Markets? Evidence from Polymarket ↗Prediction Market Portfolio Tracker ↗
Direct competitors already occupy this niche: Predictboox explicitly markets 'journal notes + P&L' for Kalshi/Polymarket, while Kalopoly, Managebankroll, and EdgeView all offer prediction-market-specific tracking — the 'thesis grading' AI angle is only modestly differentiated.Prediction Market Portfolio Tracker ↗Free Prediction Market Tracker | Polymarket & Kalshi P&L ↗Kalopoly - Polymarket & Kalshi Analytics ↗
General trading journals charge $10–30/mo and retail traders do pay (TradeZella, TraderSync, Edgewonk prove willingness), but prediction-market-specific free trackers (Managebankroll) anchor a $0 alternative and the addressable user base is small — middling monetization potential.The Complete Guide to Trading Journals in 2026 | Disciplined ↗Trading Journal Comparison 2026: 7 Platforms Compared ↗
Prediction markets are mainstreaming and regulation is clarifying (Kalshi CFTC-regulated, Polymarket returning to US), with PM-Sniper bot traction pointing to expanding automated/active trader activity — solid multi-year tailwind.Kalshi vs. Polymarket: Key Differences, Fees & Legal Status ↗Who Wins and Who Loses In Prediction Markets? Evidence from Polymarket ↗
Multiple small teams have already shipped functional prediction-market trackers with journal/notes features (Predictboox, Kalopoly), proving the build is tractable given public Polymarket/Kalshi data.Prediction Market Portfolio Tracker ↗Kalopoly - Polymarket & Kalshi Analytics ↗