ForecastRoom — Multi-Agent Probability Reports for Prediction-Market Enthusiasts
A subscription tool for prediction-market enthusiasts and active retail forecasters on Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold that, when you ask 'will the Fed cut in September?' or 'will NVDA beat by more than 5%?', runs a panel of AI agents each with deliberately different source feeds (SEC filings, social sentiment, options flow, sell-side notes, prediction-market odds) and produces a calibrated probability with a confidence band and a 'where the panel disagreed' chart.
active prediction-market traders and forecasting hobbyists on Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold who want an edge on macro, earnings, and political events
- 'Deliberation room' view — see each agent's reasoning, what evidence it had, and where the panel split
- Historical accuracy tracker using Brier scores so you can see how the tool has done on past calls over time
- One-click prediction-market mirror — exports your probability as a limit order on Polymarket or Kalshi
- Personal calibration tracker — over months, learns whether you should trust the panel's high- or low-confidence bands
The arXiv paper shows multi-agent deliberation with deliberately partitioned evidence beats single-agent by 12–18% on Brier score; prediction-market hobbyists are actively spending on AI research tools and have no access to this technique.
Polymarket hit 477,900 MAU (+93.7% MoM) and Kalshi posted $4.39B October volume, with both platforms at all-time highs, confirming a large and fast-growing active retail forecasting base.Polymarket Monthly Active Users Reach 477,900, Kalshi Leads Prediction Market with $4.4B Volume ↗Kalshi Surpasses Polymarket in October Trading Volume as Both Platforms Hit Records ↗
No commercial multi-agent probability-report product targets Polymarket/Kalshi traders; existing Manifold tooling is open-source Python bots (e.g., microprediction/manifoldbot) and generic demo apps, leaving the niche open.manifoldbot: manifold markets client and bot ↗Prediction AI • Multi-Agent Prediction Engine ↗
Unclear willingness to pay; the visible Manifold bot ecosystem is free/open-source, and active retail forecasters typically build their own tools rather than buy subscription AI reports — pricing power is unproven.manifoldbot: manifold markets client and bot ↗Building a diamond Manifold prediction bot in a weekend ↗
Prediction markets are structurally growing (Polymarket raised at $9B from ICE, Kalshi 10x revenue in 2025) and multi-agent AI is an active research direction, supporting multi-year relevance.The Growth Path of Polymarket and Kalshi ↗
Building partitioned-source agents requires expensive/licensed feeds (Bloomberg options flow, sell-side notes, real-time social sentiment APIs) on top of multi-agent orchestration — non-trivial engineering and data cost.Unlocking Stock Market Forecasts with AI Multi-Agent Analysis ↗