Polymarket Honesty Score
A browser plugin and API that overlays every AI-written market analysis on Polymarket and Kalshi with a 'reliability badge' showing whether the AI's stated confidence matches its internal certainty and whether the cited evidence actually drove the prediction.
Retail prediction-market traders on Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold who use ChatGPT or Claude to summarize news before betting
- Per-analysis honesty score (0-100) with breakdown: calibration, evidence faithfulness, and reasoning coherence
- Side-by-side view of the AI's stated reasoning vs. the sources it actually used to form the view
- Alerts when an AI prediction shifts but the reasoning text barely changes, a strong signal of hidden drivers
- Whale-tracking integration: highlights when a market's biggest wallets disagree with the AI consensus
Prediction-market volume is exploding on Polymarket and Kalshi, and traders are leaning on LLMs for pre-bet research just as research shows those LLMs' chain-of-thought often hides the real evidence behind a forecast.
Direct evidence traders are using LLMs as pre-bet research: Medium write-up on Claude workflows for Kalshi/Polymarket, GitHub LLM-based Polymarket trading agents (Claude+GPT-4o), Twitter posts building Claude Code prediction-market terminals, and Alphascope explicitly lists ChatGPT/Claude as a top research tool.How I Use Claude to Research Prediction Markets on Kalshi and Polymarket ↗Polymarket AI Trading Agent (Claude + GPT-4o-mini) ↗Best AI Tools for Polymarket and Prediction Market Trading (2026) ↗
Targeted search for 'reliability badge' / 'honesty score' / faithfulness overlay on AI forecasts returned zero direct competitors; closest analogues are PolyBench (benchmark) and Polymarket Calibration Tracker (scores markets, not LLM analyses). No product overlays honesty/calibration on LLM-written market commentary.PolyBench: Benchmarking LLM Forecasting and Trading Capabilities on Polymarket ↗Polymarket Calibration Tracker ↗
Comparable prediction-market AI tools monetize via freemium (AlphaScope free tier + premium for real-time alerts and advanced AI signals); multiple paid bots on PolyFly/PolyCatalog. Niche is narrower (only LLM-using retail traders) and willingness-to-pay is unproven for a trust-overlay utility, so midpoint is appropriate.Best AI Tools for Polymarket and Prediction Market Trading (2026) - AlphaScope pricing ↗Best Polymarket Bots in 2026: AI Bots, Telegram Bots & Trading Bots ↗
Prediction-market volumes are structurally growing (AlphaScope: 'ecosystem exploded since 2024') and AI-assisted research is sticky; however, the underlying CoT-faithfulness problem is being studied by frontier labs and could be solved natively in future model releases, shrinking the wedge for an overlay tool.Best AI Tools for Polymarket and Prediction Market Trading (2026) ↗
Hard to build as described: probing 'internal certainty' requires access to hidden states/logits which closed APIs (ChatGPT, Claude) do not expose; a browser plugin cannot intercept them. Citation-evidence faithfulness is measurable, but the core calibration-against-internals feature is effectively impossible against commercial LLMs without model-side cooperation.Polymarket AI Trading Agent (Claude + GPT-4o-mini) - shows public-API-only constraint ↗