ForecastMyThesis
Type an investment thesis — 'I think lithium miners are overvalued because of EV demand cooling' — and get a probability-weighted breakdown of how likely it is to play out over your time horizon, with the strongest counter-arguments surfaced.
self-directed retail investors with concentrated stock or sector theses
- Thesis parser that extracts the testable claims inside an investing idea
- Bull/bear sub-agent debate with cited sources for each side
- Probability decay curve showing how confidence should evolve over time
- 'News shock' recalibration when major events hit a tracked thesis
AI superforecasters hitting parity with pro humans (per Metaculus Cup results) means retail investors can finally access institutional-grade probabilistic reasoning at consumer prices.
AI investing apps crossed $1.4B in consumer spend 2024 and are projected at >$2B for 2025, with many ranked-list articles catering to self-directed investors, but 'thesis validation' is a narrower behavior than the dominant pattern of wanting actionable stock picks.Rise of AI Apps: Trends Shaping 2025 - Report by Appfigures ↗Ranking the 9 Smartest AI Stock Prediction Tools Retail Investors Can Use ↗
Crowded stock-picker / rating space (Zen Ratings, Intellectia, Exent, etc.) but no dominant tool that takes a free-form investment thesis and returns a calibrated probability with explicit counter-arguments aimed at retail users.13 Best AI Trading Tools 2026 — Tested & Priced ↗Best Stock Analysis Tools (2026) | 12 Tools Ranked ↗
Subscriptions clearly monetize in this category (Intellectia ~$15/mo, premium tools $50–$200/mo), but probabilistic thesis critiques are harder to value than concrete picks/screeners, and unverified probabilistic outputs expose the seller to credibility/regulation risk that suppresses willingness-to-pay.13 Best AI Trading Tools 2026 — Tested & Priced ↗AI Investment 2025: Opportunities in a Volatile Market | FTI ↗
Forecasting/AI reasoning demand is durable, but the 'parity with pro humans' premise is overstated — Metaculus Q2 results show Pro humans still maintain a clear lead over bots, so the technology moat narrative is weaker than the HN pitch suggests.Q2 AI Benchmark Results: Pros Maintain Clear Lead — EA Forum ↗See the future sooner with Superforecasting | Good Judgment ↗
Trivial to prototype with current LLMs plus retrieval over news/filings; the hard part is calibration and citation accuracy, which even Metaculus AI bots still underperform humans on, so engineering risk sits in evaluation/UX rather than core model access.Metaculus Q4 AI Benchmarking: Bots Are Closing The Gap ↗